Disease burden of liver cancer in China from 1997 to 2016: an observational study based on the Global Burden of Diseases

Objective To evaluate the trends in disease burden and the epidemiological features of liver cancer in China while identifying potential strategies to lower the disease burden. Design Observational study based on the Global Burden of Diseases. Participants Data were publicly available and de-identified and individuals were not involved. Measurement and methods To measure the liver cancer burden, we extracted data from the Global Health Data Exchange using the metrics of prevalence, incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Joinpoint and negative binomial regressions were applied to identify trends and risk factors. Results From 1997 to 2016, the prevalence, incidence, mortality and DALYs of liver cancer in China were from 28.22/100 000 to 60.04/100 000, from 27.33/100 000 to 41.40/100 000, from 27.40/100 000 to 31.49/100 000 and from 10 311 308 to 11 539 102, respectively. The prevalence, incidence and mortality were increasing, with the average annual percent changes (AAPCs) of 4.0% (95% CI 3.9% to 4.2%), 2.1% (95% CI 2.0% to 2.2%) and 0.5% (95% CI 0.2% to 0.9%), respectively. Meanwhile, the rate of DALYs was stable with the AAPCs of -0.1% (95% CI -0.4% to 0.3%). The mortality-to-incidence ratio of liver cancer decreased from 1.00 in 1997 to 0.76 in 2016 (beta=-0.014, p<0.0001). Males (OR: 2.98, 95% CI 2.68 to 3.30 for prevalence, OR: 2.45, 95% CI 2.21 to 2.71 for incidence) and the elderly individuals (OR: 1.57, 95% CI 1.55 to 1.59 for prevalence, OR: 1.58, 95% CI 1.56 to 1.60 for incidence) had a higher risk. Hepatitis B accounted for the highest proportion of liver cancer cases (55.11%) and deaths (54.13%). Conclusions The disease burden of liver cancer continued to increase in China with viral factors as one of the leading causes. Strategies such as promoting hepatitis B vaccinations, blocking the transmission of hepatitis C and reducing alcohol consumption should be prioritised.