Global mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 viruses with spatial cross-validation

被引：39

作者：

Dhingra, Madhur S. ^{[1
,2
]}

Artois, Jean ^{[1
]}

Robinson, Timothy P. ^{[3
]}

Linard, Catherine ^{[1
,4
]}

Chaiban, Celia ^{[1
]}

Xenarios, Ioannis ^{[5
,6
]}

Engler, Robin ^{[5
]}

Liechti, Robin ^{[5
]}

Kuznetsov, Dmitri ^{[5
]}

Xiao, Xiangming ^{[7
,8
,9
]}

Von Dobschuetz, Sophie ^{[10
]}

Claes, Filip ^{[11
]}

Newman, Scott H. ^{[12
]}

Dauphin, Gwenaelle ^{[10
]}

Gilbert, Marius ^{[1
,13
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Libre Bruxelles, Spatial Epidemiol Lab, Brussels, Belgium

[2] Govt Haryana, Dept Anim Husb & Dairy, Panchkula, India

[3] Int Livestock Res Inst, Livestock Syst & Environ, Nairobi, Kenya

[4] Univ Namur, Dept Geog, Namur, Belgium

[5] Swiss Inst Bioinformat, Swiss Prot & Vital IT Grp, Lausanne, Switzerland

[6] Univ Lausanne, Ctr Integrat Genom, Lausanne, Switzerland

[7] Univ Oklahoma, Dept Microbiol & Plant Biol, Norman, OK 73019 USA

[8] Univ Oklahoma, Ctr Spatial Anal, Norman, OK 73019 USA

[9] Fudan Univ, Inst Biodivers Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China

[10] Food & Agr Org United Nat, Anim Prod & Hlth Div, Rome, Italy

[11] FAO Reg Off Asia & Pacific, Emergency Ctr Transboundary Anim Dis, Bangkok, Thailand

[12] Food & Agr Org United Nat, Emergency Ctr Transboundary Anim Dis, Hanoi, Vietnam

[13] Founds Nat Rech Sci, Brussels, Belgium

来源：

ELIFE | 2016年 / 5卷

基金：

英国医学研究理事会; 英国生物技术与生命科学研究理事会; 美国国家卫生研究院;

关键词：

DOMESTIC DUCKS; SUBTYPE H5N1; EPIDEMIOLOGY; MODELS; RISK; TRANSMISSION; TEMPERATURE; VACCINATION; EMERGENCE; EVOLUTION;

D O I：

10.7554/eLife.19571

中图分类号：

Q [生物科学];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Global disease suitability models are essential tools to inform surveillance systems and enable early detection. We present the first global suitability model of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 and demonstrate that reliable predictions can be obtained at global scale. Best predictions are obtained using spatial predictor variables describing host distributions, rather than land use or eco-climatic spatial predictor variables, with a strong association with domestic duck and extensively raised chicken densities. Our results also support a more systematic use of spatial cross-validation in large-scale disease suitability modelling compared to standard random cross-validation that can lead to unreliable measure of extrapolation accuracy. A global suitability model of the H5 clade 2.3.4.4 viruses, a group of viruses that recently spread extensively in Asia and the US, shows in comparison a lower spatial extrapolation capacity than the HPAI H5N1 models, with a stronger association with intensively raised chicken densities and anthropogenic factors

引用

页数：20

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