Validation of a Full Bayes methodology for observational before-after road safety studies and application to evaluation of rural signal conversions

被引：85
作者：
Lan, Bo [1 ]
Persaud, Bhagwant [1 ]
Lyon, Craig [1 ]
Bhim, Ravi [2 ]
机构：
[1] Ryerson Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Toronto, ON M5B 2K3, Canada
[2] iTRANS Consulting Inc, Richmond Hill, ON L4B 1JB, Canada
来源：
ACCIDENT ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION | 2009年 / 41卷 / 03期
基金：
加拿大自然科学与工程研究理事会;
关键词：
Bayesian; DIC; Road safety; Treatment effect; Before-after evaluations; WinBUGS;
D O I：
10.1016/j.aap.2009.02.010
中图分类号：
TB18 [人体工程学];
学科分类号：
1201 ;
摘要：
The objective of the study on which the paper is based was to explore the application of fully Bayesian methods for before-after road safety studies. Several variations of the methodology were evaluated with a simulated dataset in which hypothetical treatments with no safety effect were randomly assigned to high accident locations to mimic the common site selection process in road jurisdictions. It was confirmed that the fully Bayesian method by estimating no safety effect can account for the regression-to-the-mean that results from this biased site selection process. The fully Bayesian method was then applied to California rural intersection data to evaluate the safety effect of conversion from stop to signalized control. The results were then compared with those from the empirical Bayesian method, currently the accepted approach for conducting unbiased before-after evaluations. This comparison was generally favorable in that FB can provide similar results as EB. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：574 / 580
页数：7
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