Increase in the intensity of postmonsoon Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones

被引：152

作者：

Balaguru, Karthik ^{[1
]}

Taraphdar, Sourav ^{[1
]}

Leung, L. Ruby ^{[1
]}

Foltz, Gregory R. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Pacific NW Natl Lab, Richland, WA 99352 USA

[2] NOAA, Atlantic Oceanog & Meteorol Lab, Phys Oceanog Div, Miami, FL 33149 USA

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2014年 / 41卷 / 10期

关键词：

tropical cyclones; Bay of Bengal; postmonsoon; ocean heat content; moist static energy; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE; NORTHERN INDIAN-OCEAN; DATA ASSIMILATION; VARIABILITY; FREQUENCY; CLIMATE; DIPOLE; SST;

D O I：

10.1002/2014GL060197

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

The postmonsoon (October-November) tropical cyclone (TC) season in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) has spawned many of the deadliest storms in recorded history. Here it is shown that the intensity of major TCs (wind speed > 49m s-1) in the postmonsoon BoB increased during 1981-2010. It is found that changes in environmental parameters are responsible for the observed increases in TC intensity. Increases in sea surface temperature and upper ocean heat content made the ocean more conducive to TC intensification, while enhanced convective instability made the atmosphere more favorable for the growth of TCs. The largest changes in the atmosphere and ocean occurred in the eastern BoB, where nearly all major TCs form. These changes are part of positive linear trends, suggesting that the intensity of postmonsoon BoB TCs may continue to increase in the future.

引用

页码：3594 / 3601

页数：8

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