SPATIALLY-EXPLICIT CHARACTERIZATION OF THE EXTREME DISTRIBUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE-INDUCED FLOOD RISK

Coastal areas are among the most populated regions on Earth. They are subject to complex flooding dynamics arising from the interaction between the coastal and continental environments. In this work we focus on the characterization of the extreme distribution of inundation induced by tropical cyclones in coastal environments. Marine dynamics (storm surge and wave run-up) as well as continental dynamics (precipitation and runoff) are considered in the analysis. All dynamics are driven by tropical cyclones, which are made dependent on spatial fields of Sea Surface Temperature (SST). A combination of dynamic and statistical downscaling techniques is used to generate, in the spatial domain of interest, synthetic time series of the variables of interest (inundation depth) via Monte Carlo simulation. The long time series generated are used to obtain a complete statistical representation of inundation for every location of interest in our domain. The methodology allows to characterize risk as well as hazard, and also to evaluate the effect of climate change.