Does neighborhood socioeconomic status predict the risk of preterm birth? A community-based Canadian cohort study

Objective This study developed and internally validated a predictive model for preterm birth (PTB) to examine the ability of neighbourhood socioeconomic status (SES) to predict PTB. Design Cohort study using individual-level data from two community-based prospective pregnancy cohort studies (All Our Families (AOF) and Alberta Pregnancy Outcomes and Nutrition (APrON)) and neighbourhood SES data from the 2011 Canadian census. Setting Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Participants Pregnant women who were <24 weeks of gestation and >15 years old were enrolled in the cohort studies between 2008 and 2012. Overall, 5297 women participated in at least one of these cohorts: 3341 women participated in the AOF study, 2187 women participated in the APrON study and 231 women participated in both studies. Women who participated in both studies were only counted once. Primary and secondary outcome measures PTB (delivery prior to 37 weeks of gestation). Results The rates of PTB in the least and most deprived neighbourhoods were 7.54% and 10.64%, respectively. Neighbourhood variation in PTB was 0.20, with an intra-class correlation of 5.72%. Neighbourhood SES, combined with individual-level predictors, predicted PTB with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.75. The sensitivity was 91.80% at a low-risk threshold, with a high false-positive rate (71.50%), and the sensitivity was 5.70% at a highest risk threshold, with a low false-positive rate (0.90%). An agreement between the predicted and observed PTB demonstrated modest model calibration. Individual-level predictors alone predicted PTB with an AUC of 0.60. Conclusion Although neighbourhood SES combined with individual-level predictors improved the overall prediction of PTB compared with individual-level predictors alone, the detection rate was insufficient for application in clinical or public health practice. A prediction model with better predictive ability is required to effectively find women at high risk of preterm delivery.