A Spatial-Temporal Model for the Evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Spain Including Mobility

被引:27
|
作者
Arandiga, Francesc [1 ]
Baeza, Antonio [1 ]
Cordero-Carrion, Isabel [1 ]
Donat, Rosa [1 ]
Marti, M. Carmen [1 ]
Mulet, Pep [1 ]
Yanez, Dionisio F. [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Valencia, Dept Matemat, Ave Vicent Andres Estelles, E-46100 Burjassot, Spain
关键词
spatial-temporal SAIR model; mobility; outbreak spread; COVID-19; epidemic model; lockdown;
D O I
10.3390/math8101677
中图分类号
O1 [数学];
学科分类号
0701 ; 070101 ;
摘要
In this work, a model for the simulation of infectious disease outbreaks including mobility data is presented. The model is based on the SAIR compartmental model and includes mobility data terms that model the flow of people between different regions. The aim of the model is to analyze the influence of mobility on the evolution of a disease after a lockdown period and to study the appearance of small epidemic outbreaks due to the so-called imported cases. We apply the model to the simulation of the COVID-19 in the various areas of Spain, for which the authorities made available mobility data based on the position of cell phones. We also introduce a method for the estimation of incomplete mobility data. Some numerical experiments show the importance of data completion and indicate that the model is able to qualitatively simulate the spread tendencies of small outbreaks. This work was motivated by an open call made to the mathematical community in Spain to help predict the spread of the epidemic.
引用
收藏
页码:1 / 19
页数:19
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] Spatial-Temporal Urban Mobility Pattern Analysis During COVID-19 Pandemic
    Cheng, Yanggang
    Li, Chao
    Zhang, Yongtao
    He, Shibo
    Chen, Jiming
    IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMPUTATIONAL SOCIAL SYSTEMS, 2024, 11 (01) : 38 - 50
  • [2] Weather, mobility and the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic
    Ghirelli, Corinna
    Gonzalez, Andrea
    Luis Herrera, Jose
    Hurtado, Samuel
    JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC STUDIES, 2023, 50 (03) : 625 - 641
  • [3] COVID-19 case rates, spatial mobility, and neighbourhood socioeconomic characteristics in Toronto: a spatial-temporal analysis
    Forsyth, Jack
    Wang, Lu
    Thomas-Bachli, Andrea
    CANADIAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH-REVUE CANADIENNE DE SANTE PUBLIQUE, 2023, 114 (05): : 806 - 822
  • [4] Unsupervised data mining on spatial-temporal passenger mobility and survey data during Covid-19
    Budinger, Philippe
    Gronli, Tor-Morten
    2021 IEEE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON BIG DATA (BIG DATA), 2021, : 4327 - 4332
  • [5] Spatial Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts on Mobility in Madrid Region
    Al-Akioui, Abid
    Monzon, Andres
    SUSTAINABILITY, 2023, 15 (19)
  • [6] Temporal and spatial evolution of the distribution related to the number of COVID-19 pandemic
    Liu, Peng
    Zheng, Yanyan
    PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS, 2022, 603
  • [7] Spatial-Temporal Data Science of COVID-19 Data
    Deng, Deyu
    Leung, Carson K.
    Zhao, Chenru
    Wen, Yan
    Zheng, Hao
    2021 IEEE 15TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON BIG DATA SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING (BIGDATASE 2021), 2021, : 7 - 14
  • [8] Agent-based Modeling as a Tool for Predicting the Spatial-temporal Diffusion of the COVID-19 Pandemic
    Olszewski, R.
    Palka, P.
    Wendland, A.
    2021 IEEE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING AND ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT (IEEE IEEM21), 2021, : 11 - 15
  • [9] Spatial-temporal heterogeneity of global ports resilience under Pandemic: a case study of COVID-19
    Xu, Lang
    Yang, Zhihui
    Chen, Jihong
    Zou, Zeyuan
    MARITIME POLICY & MANAGEMENT, 2024, 51 (08) : 1655 - 1668
  • [10] HierST: A Unified Hierarchical Spatial-temporal Framework for COVID-19 Trend Forecasting
    Zheng, Shun
    Gao, Zhifeng
    Cao, Wei
    Bian, Jiang
    Liu, Tie-Yan
    PROCEEDINGS OF THE 30TH ACM INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON INFORMATION & KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT, CIKM 2021, 2021, : 4383 - 4392