Late Pleniglacial vegetation in eastern-central Europe: are there modern analogues in Siberia?

To characterize Late Pleniglacial (LPG: 26.5-15 lea cal BP) and particularly Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 21 +/- 2 lea cal BP) vegetation and climate, fossil pollen assemblages are often compared with modern pollen assemblages. Given the non-analogue climate of the LPG, a key question is how glacial pollen assemblages and thereby vegetation compare with modern vegetation. In this paper we present three LPG pollen records from the Carpathian Basin and the adjoining Carpathian Mountains to address this question and provide a concise compositional characterization of the LPG vegetation. Fossil pollen assemblages were compared with surface pollen spectra from the Altai-Sayan Mountains in southern Siberia. This area shows many similarities with the LPG vegetation of eastern-central Europe, and has long been considered as its best modern analogue. Ordination and analogue matching were used to characterize vegetation composition and find the best analogues. Our results show that few LPG pollen assemblages have statistically significant analogues in southern Siberia. When analogue pairings occur they suggest the predominance of wet and mesic grasslands and dry steppe in the studied region. Wooded vegetation types (continental and suboceanic hemiboreal forest, continental taiga) appear as significant analogues only in a few cases during the LGM and more frequently after 16 lea cal BP. These results suggest that the LPG landscape of the Carpathian Basin was dominated by dry steppe that occurred outside the river floodplains, while wet and mesic grasslands occurred in the floodplains and on other sites influenced by ground water. Woody vegetation mainly occurred in river valleys, on wet north-facing hillsides, and scattered trees were likely also present on the loess plateaus. The dominant woody species were Larix, Pious sylvestris, Pinus mugo, Pinus cembra, Picea abies, Betula pendula/pubescens, Betula nano, Juniperus, Hippophae rhamnoides, Populus, Salix and Alnus. The pollen records suggest uninterrupted presence of mesophilous temperate trees (Quercus, Ulmus, Corylus, Fagus and Fraxinus excelsior) in the Eastern Carpathian Mountains throughout the LPG. We demonstrate that the LPG vegetation in this area was characterized by increasing grass cover and high frequency of wildfires. We conclude that pollen spectra over represent trees in the forest-steppe landscape of the LPG, furthermore pollen-based quantitative climate reconstructions for the LPG are challenging in this area due to the scarcity of modern analogues. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.