Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

被引：210

作者：

Wiebe, Keith ^{[1
]}

Lotze-Campen, Hermann ^{[2
,3
]}

Sands, Ronald ^{[4
]}

Tabeau, Andrzej ^{[5
]}

van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique ^{[6
]}

Biewald, Anne ^{[2
]}

Bodirsky, Benjamin ^{[2
]}

Islam, Shahnila ^{[1
]}

Kavallari, Aikaterini ^{[7
]}

Mason-D'Croz, Daniel ^{[1
]}

Mueller, Christoph ^{[2
]}

Popp, Alexander ^{[2
]}

Robertson, Richard ^{[1
]}

Robinson, Sherman ^{[1
]}

van Meijl, Hans

Willenbockel, Dirk ^{[8
]}

机构：

[1] Int Food Policy Res Inst, Washington, DC 20006 USA

[2] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany

[3] Humboldt Univ, D-10099 Berlin, Germany

[4] USDA, Econ Res Serv, Washington, DC 20250 USA

[5] LEI Wageningen UR, NL-6708 PB Wageningen, Netherlands

[6] Purdue Univ, Global Trade Anal Project, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA

[7] Food & Agr Org United Nations, I-00153 Rome, Italy

[8] Univ Sussex, Inst Dev Studies, Brighton BN1 9RE, E Sussex, England

来源：

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2015年 / 10卷 / 08期

基金：

美国农业部;

关键词：

climate; agriculture; economics; yields; prices; trade; CROP PRODUCTION; FOOD DEMAND; LAND-USE; MODEL; PRODUCTIVITY; RESPONSES; FUTURE; GROWTH;

D O I：

10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085010

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and input data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. This paper extends that analysis to explore a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from multiple climate and economic models are combined to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on agricultural yields, area, production, consumption, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar crops to 2050. Wefind that climate impacts on global average yields, area, production and consumption are similar across shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1, 2 and 3, as we implement them based on population, income and productivity drivers), except when changes in trade policies are included. Impacts on trade and prices are higher for SSP 3 than SSP 2, and higher for SSP 2 than for SSP 1. Climate impacts for all variables are similar across low to moderate emissions pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0), but increase for a higher emissions pathway (RCP 8.5). It is important to note that these global averages may hide regional variations. Projected reductions in agricultural yields due to climate change by 2050 are larger for some crops than those estimated for the past half century, but smaller than projected increases to 2050 due to rising demand and intrinsic productivity growth. Results illustrate the sensitivity of climate change impacts to differences in socioeconomic and emissions pathways. Yield impacts increase at high emissions levels and vary with changes in population, income and technology, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables.

引用

页数：15

共 52 条

[11] Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period: historical trends and future projections [J].

Gourdji, Sharon M. ;

Sibley, Adam M. ;

Lobell, David B. .

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2013, 8 (02)

[12]

Heft-Neal S, 2015, BUILDING RE IN PRESS

[13] A trend-preserving bias correction - the ISI-MIP approach [J].

Hempel, S. ;

Frieler, K. ;

Warszawski, L. ;

Schewe, J. ;

Piontek, F. .

EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS, 2013, 4 (02) :219-236

[14] Climate change and trade in agriculture [J].

Huang, Hsin ;

von Lampe, Martin ;

van Tongeren, Frank .

FOOD POLICY, 2011, 36 :S9-S13

[15]

IIASA, 2013, SSP DAT VERS 0 93

[16]

IPCC, 2018, Global Warming of 1.5C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty

[17] The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations [J].

Jones, C. D. ;

Hughes, J. K. ;

Bellouin, N. ;

Hardiman, S. C. ;

Jones, G. S. ;

Knight, J. ;

Liddicoat, S. ;

O'Connor, F. M. ;

Andres, R. J. ;

Bell, C. ;

Boo, K. -O. ;

Bozzo, A. ;

Butchart, N. ;

Cadule, P. ;

Corbin, K. D. ;

Doutriaux-Boucher, M. ;

Friedlingstein, P. ;

Gornall, J. ;

Gray, L. ;

Halloran, P. R. ;

Hurtt, G. ;

Ingram, W. J. ;

Lamarque, J. -F. ;

Law, R. M. ;

Meinshausen, M. ;

Osprey, S. ;

Palin, E. J. ;

Chini, L. Parsons ;

Raddatz, T. ;

Sanderson, M. G. ;

Sellar, A. A. ;

Schurer, A. ;

Valdes, P. ;

Wood, N. ;

Woodward, S. ;

Yoshioka, M. ;

Zerroukat, M. .

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT, 2011, 4 (03) :543-570

[18]

KC S, 2012, SSP POPULATION PROJE

[19] The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways [J].

Kriegler, Elmar ;

O'Neill, Brian C. ;

Hallegatte, Stephane ;

Kram, Tom ;

Lempert, Robert J. ;

Moss, Richard H. ;

Wilbanks, Thomas .

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS, 2012, 22 (04) :807-822

[20] The Influence of Climate Change on Global Crop Productivity [J].

Lobell, David B. ;

Gourdji, Sharon M. .

PLANT PHYSIOLOGY, 2012, 160 (04) :1686-1697

← 1 2 3 4 5 6 →