Quantitative analysis of the driving factors for groundwater resource changes in arid irrigated areas

How to quantify the impact of climate change and human activities on groundwater is not only a hot topic of current research but also a key point of water resource management in arid irrigated areas. Therefore, this paper analyzes the changes in the trends of land use, climate, and groundwater extraction in the Yanqi Basin in recent years and uses the distributed hydrological model MIKE-SHE to quantitatively analyze the impacts of these three factors on groundwater resources. The results show that: 1. The Nash coefficients of the simulated and observed groundwater levels during the verification period are 0.84, 0.79 and 0.76; the correlation coefficient between the simulated and observed soil moisture is 0.86. Although there are some uncertainties in the simulation, the results prove that the model can be used to simulate arid irrigated areas. 2. The effects of these three factors on groundwater levels are 5, 12.5 and 82.5%, respectively, and have caused the regional average groundwater level to decrease by a maximum of 0.07, 0.23 and 1.79 m, respectively. The effects of these three factors on the interactions between surface water and groundwater were 7.04, 3.63 and 89.33%. Groundwater extraction has become the main influencing factor of regional groundwater resources changes due to its more direct influence. 3. The influence of groundwater extraction has a strong spatial distribution characteristic and 10% of the study area has been greatly impacted by the groundwater extraction. Base on the above results, integrating multidisciplinary knowledge to establish the relationship between ecological environment and groundwater changes can provide strategies for the sustainable development of groundwater.