Judgmental forecast adjustments over different time horizons

被引：20

作者：

Van den Broeke, Maud ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

De Baets, Shari ^{[3
,4
]}

Vereecke, Ann ^{[3
,4
]}

Baecke, Philippe ^{[3
,4
]}

Vanderheyden, Karlien ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] IESEG Sch Management, LEM CNRS 9221, Lille, France

[2] Katholieke Univ Leuven, Leuven, Belgium

[3] Vlerick Business Sch, Ghent, Belgium

[4] Univ Ghent, Ghent, Belgium

来源：

OMEGA-INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT SCIENCE | 2019年 / 87卷

关键词：

Judgmental forecasting; Empirical analysis; Time horizon; Operations; INTEGRATING MANAGEMENT JUDGMENT; MODELS; ACCURACY; IMPROVE; ERRORS; IMPACT;

D O I：

10.1016/j.omega.2018.09.008

中图分类号：

C93 [管理学];

学科分类号：

12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;

摘要：

Accurate demand forecasting is the cornerstone of a firm's operations. The statistical system forecasts are often judgmentally adjusted by forecasters who believe their knowledge can improve the final forecasts. While empirical research on judgmental forecast adjustments has been increasing, an important aspect is under-studied: the impact of these adjustments over different time horizons. Collecting data from 8 business cases, retrieving over 307,200 forecast adjustments, this work assesses how the characteristics (e.g., size and direction) and accuracy of consecutive adjustments change over different time horizons. We find that closer to the sales point, the number of adjustments increases and adjustments become larger and more positive; and that adjustments, both close and distant from the sales point, can deteriorate the final forecast accuracy. We discuss how these insights impact operational activities, such as production planning. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：34 / 45

页数：12

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