Fear thy neighbor: Spillovers from economic policy uncertainty

被引:29
作者
Biljanovska, Nina [1 ]
Grigoli, Francesco [1 ]
Hengge, Martina [2 ]
机构
[1] Int Monetary Fund, Res Dept, Washington, DC 20431 USA
[2] Int Monetary Fund, Western Hemisphere Dept, Washington, DC 20431 USA
基金
澳大利亚研究理事会;
关键词
D O I
10.1111/roie.12531
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
High levels of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in various parts of the world revamped the debate about its impact on economic activity. Employing heterogeneous panel structural vector autoregressions, we test for EPU spillovers on other countries' economic activity. EPU reduces growth in real output, private consumption, and private investment, with spillovers from abroad accounting for about two-thirds of the effect. Using local projections, we show that EPU surges in the United States, Europe, and China reduce economic activity in the rest of the world, with the effects being mostly felt in Europe and the Western Hemisphere.
引用
收藏
页码:409 / 438
页数:30
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