IS UKRAINE READY FOR NATO MEMBERSHIP?

Responding to the violation of Ukraine's territorial integrity by Russia, the Ukrainian political leadership has declared its intent to join NATO. This paper analyses whether Ukraine is prepared for NATO membership. The Study on NATO Enlargement defines several key criteria for new members. Four are essential: the establishment of a consolidated democratic political system, including democratic civil-military relations; the ability of the candidate's armed forces to meet NATO obligations to provide security for the international community; the settling of territorial disputes with neighbours; and public support for NATO membership. Evaluated on these criteria, Ukraine is not ready for NATO membership. Ukraine is not a consolidated democracy: ambiguously distributed competencies between the executive and legislative branches allow political actors to make controversial decisions and take steps that favour short-term, many times personal, interests over long-term national goals. Civil-military relations have not been democratized to the extent demanded by NATO. The culture within the Ukrainian military has roots in both democratic values and in the communist past. Finally, the very existence of volunteer battalions contradicts democratic civil military relations. Ukraine is also a country with unresolved territorial disputes with neighbours, disputes it is certain not to have resolved in the near future. Russian policy has resulted in the illegal annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of war in Donetsk and Luhansk. These shortcomings are unlikely to be overcome in a matter of a few years, as the current Ukrainian political leadership believes. Ukraine thus has much work to do to stand even a chance of joining NATO.