Beyond the obvious: A comparison of some demographic changes across selected shrinking and growing cities in the United States from 1990 to 2010

Shrinking cities have undergone rapid demographic changes since World War II, especially as many of these urban centres deindustrialized during the 1970s and onwards. However, not all shrinking cities have experienced the same type of demographic changes. In fact, the shrinking designation may even be considered misleading in some places because not all population segments decrease during periods of overall total population decline. In order to gain a better grasp of these changes and trends over the past two decades, this paper use Franklin's () demographic shift-share analysis to explore and compare changes in a series of racial and ethnic population characteristics across a selection of five shrinking cities (Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis) and five growing cities (Atlanta, Denver, Phoenix, San Diego, and Seattle) in the United States during the two intercensal periods of 1990 to 2000 and 2000 to 2010. The list of case studies is hardly exhaustive or necessarily representative but was rather chosen as a set of fairly high-profile cities in the United States that would be useful in making comparisons with respect to their recent decline or growth. Results show that each of the shrinking cities and growing cities had exceptions among the population segments considered in this paper. For example, shrinking cities generally experienced growth in terms of their Mexican, Puerto Rican, Asian, and foreign-born populations even as their White and Black populations rapidly declined between 1990 and 2010.