Nomogram predicting long-term overall survival and cancer-specific survival of lip carcinoma patients based on the SEER database A retrospective case-control study

Our study was designed to construct nomograms to predict the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of lip carcinoma patients. A search of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database provided us with detailed clinical data of the 1780 lip carcinoma patients. On the basis of the credible random split-sample method, the 1780 patients were placed into 2 groups, with 890 patients in the modeling group and 890 patients in the counterpart's group (proportion = 1:1). By employing Kaplan-Meier univariate and Cox multivariate survival analyses based on the modeling cohort, the nomograms were developed and then used to divide the modeling cohort into low-risk cohort and high-risk cohort. The survival rates of the 2 groups were calculated. Internal and external evaluation of nomogram accuracy was performed by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves. With regard to 5- and 8-year OS and CSS, the C-indexes of internal validation were 0.762 and 0.787, whereas those of external validation reached 0.772 and 0.818, respectively. All the C-indexes were higher than 0.7. The survival curves of the low-risk cohort were obviously better than those of the high-risk cohort. Credible nomograms have been established based on the SEER large-sample population research. We believe these nomograms can contribute to the design of treatment plans and evaluations of individual prognosis.