Extreme weather events risk to crop-production and the adaptation of innovative management strategies to mitigate the risk: A retrospective survey of rural Punjab, Pakistan

Evaluation of climate-induced crop damages is imperative to formulate innovative technologies and management strategies to reduce the vulnerability of farms and agriculture. Based on a survey of 1232 wheat growers from Pakistan, conducted in April and May of 2019, the study estimates the production risk of wheat farms to weather shocks and the effectiveness of physical, non-physical, and innovative management strategies for reducing crop damages. Parametric and non-parametric econometric techniques were applied to approach study objectives. The survey revealed that the adverse effects of extreme weather events on the damages to wheat crop were more significant with the rise of severe weather the closer to harvest time such damages occurred. The results of the propensity score matching (PSM) method found wheat loss when the crop experienced a severe intensity of thunderstorms, windstorms, and hailstorms. The parametric analysis confirmed that with a one-unit increase in the severity of thunderstorms, windstorms, and hailstorms the wheat yield decreased. Surprisingly, even if thunderstorms and hailstorms were rated moderate or low in severity, a significant reduction in wheat yield was found. The Mann-Whitney (MW) test showed that adaptive measures significantly reduced the amount of wheat damage. Particularly, the PSM method confirmed that the adoption of strategies such as watercourse availability, maintenance of watercourse, availability of canal/drain, sowing of stiff-stem wheat variety, plantation of a shelterbelt, and adjustment in irrigation schedule, significantly reduced wheat loss. Furthermore, education, farming experience, family size, cropping area, and access to weather forecast information significantly affected the adaptation of innovative management strategies.