Effect of gun availability on homicide rates in Quebec 1974 to 2006: analysis of time series

This article evaluates the relationship between gun availability and homicide rates in Quebec between 1974 and 2006. It stands out from previous research, on the one hand, by creating gun availability proxies according to gun legal status and, on the other, by conceptualizing homicide rates according to their context of commission. Proxies and homicide rates time series were analysed using an ARIMA model. Significant relationships are noticed when both phenomena are evaluated at the same measurement time. These results make it difficult to confirm any causality patterns between gun availability proxies and the various homicide rates employed. In other words, we can't confirm whether gun availability influences homicide rates, or if homicide rates are what has an impact on the tendency for Canadians to acquire guns. Results, however, suggest that gun availability has a close relationship with one particular homicide rate - namely, spousal homicides. An increase in spousal homicide is reflected, in the short run, by an increase in long guns availability. Thereafter, an increase in this particular type of gun is followed by a significant drop in spousal homicides. The discussion emphasizes the importance of considering both the context in which homicides are committed and the legal status of guns used in such contexts when assessing the relationship between gun availability and crime of violence.