How well do integrated assessment models represent non-CO2 radiative forcing?

被引：16

作者：

Harmsen, Mathijs J. H. M. ^{[1
,2
]}

van Vuuren, Detlef P. ^{[1
,2
]}

van den Berg, Maarten ^{[2
]}

Hof, Andries F. ^{[1
,2
]}

Hope, Chris ^{[3
]}

Krey, Volker ^{[4
]}

Lamarque, Jean-Francois ^{[5
]}

Marcucci, Adriana ^{[6
]}

Shindell, Drew T. ^{[7
]}

Schaeffer, Michiel ^{[8
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, NL-3584 CS Utrecht, Netherlands

[2] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands

[3] Univ Cambridge, Judge Business Sch, Cambridge CB2 1AG, England

[4] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

[5] NCAR, Boulder, CO 80305 USA

[6] ETH, Ctr Econ Res, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland

[7] Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm, Durham, NC 27708 USA

[8] Climate Analyt, D-14467 Potsdam, Germany

来源：

CLIMATIC CHANGE | 2015年 / 133卷 / 04期

关键词：

CLIMATE-CHANGE; MITIGATION; AEROSOLS; GASES; OCEAN;

D O I：

10.1007/s10584-015-1485-0

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

This study aims to create insight in how Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) perform in describing the climate forcing by non-CO2 gases and aerosols. The simple climate models (SCMs) included in IAMs have been run with the same prescribed anthropogenic emission pathways and compared to analyses with complex earth system models (ESMs) in terms of concentration and radiative forcing levels. In our comparison, particular attention was given to the short-lived forcers' climate effects. In general, SCMs show forcing levels within the expert model ranges. However, the more simple SCMs seem to underestimate forcing differences between baseline and mitigation scenarios because of omission of ozone, black carbon and/or indirect methane forcing effects. Above all, results also show that among IAMs there is a significant spread (0.74 W/m(2) in 2100) in non-CO2 forcing projections for a 2.6 W/m(2) mitigation scenario, mainly due to uncertainties in the indirect effects of aerosols. This has large implications for determining optimal mitigation strategies among IAMs with regard to required CO2 forcing targets and policy costs.

引用

页码：565 / 582

页数：18

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