共 47 条
Reactive school closure weakens the network of social interactions and reduces the spread of influenza
被引:111
作者:
Litvinova, Maria
[1
,2
]
Liu, Quan-Hui
[1
,3
,4
]
Kulikov, Evgeny S.
[5
]
Ajelli, Marco
[1
,6
]
机构:
[1] Northeastern Univ, Lab Modeling Biol & Sociotech Syst, Boston, MA 02115 USA
[2] ISI Fdn, I-10126 Turin, Italy
[3] Univ Elect Sci & Technol China, CompleX Lab, Chengdu 611731, Sichuan, Peoples R China
[4] Univ Elect Sci & Technol China, Big Data Res Ctr, Chengdu 611731, Sichuan, Peoples R China
[5] Siberian State Med Univ, Div Gen Med Practice, Tomsk 634050, Russia
[6] Bruno Kessler Fdn, I-38123 Trento, Italy
来源:
关键词:
mixing patterns;
school-closure strategies;
influenza;
network science;
PANDEMIC INFLUENZA;
INFECTIOUS-DISEASES;
TRANSMISSION;
STRATEGIES;
IMPACT;
VIRUS;
D O I:
10.1073/pnas.1821298116
中图分类号:
O [数理科学和化学];
P [天文学、地球科学];
Q [生物科学];
N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号:
07 ;
0710 ;
09 ;
摘要:
School-closure policies are considered one of the most promising nonpharmaceutical interventions for mitigating seasonal and pandemic influenza. However, their effectiveness is still debated, primarily due to the lack of empirical evidence about the behavior of the population during the implementation of the policy. Over the course of the 2015 to 2016 influenza season in Russia, we performed a diary-based contact survey to estimate the patterns of social interactions before and during the implementation of reactive school-closure strategies. We develop an innovative hybrid survey-modeling framework to estimate the time-varying network of human social interactions. By integrating this network with an infection transmission model, we reduce the uncertainty surrounding the impact of school-closure policies in mitigating the spread of influenza. When the school-closure policy is in place, we measure a significant reduction in the number of contacts made by students (14.2 vs. 6.5 contacts per day) and workers (11.2 vs. 8.7 contacts per day). This reduction is not offset by the measured increase in the number of contacts between students and nonhousehold relatives. Model simulations suggest that gradual reactive school-closure policies based on monitoring student absenteeism rates are capable of mitigating influenza spread. We estimate that without the implemented reactive strategies the attack rate of the 2015 to 2016 influenza season would have been 33% larger. Our study sheds light on the social mixing patterns of the population during the implementation of reactive school closures and provides key instruments for future cost-effectiveness analyses of school-closure policies.
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页码:13174 / 13181
页数:8
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