WKB theory of epidemic fade-out in stochastic populations

被引：25

作者：

Meerson, Baruch ^{[1
]}

Sasorov, Pavel V. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Racah Inst Phys, IL-91904 Jerusalem, Israel

[2] Inst Theoret & Expt Phys, Moscow 117218, Russia

来源：

PHYSICAL REVIEW E | 2009年 / 80卷 / 04期

基金：

以色列科学基金会;

关键词：

diseases; probability; stochastic processes;

D O I：

10.1103/PhysRevE.80.041130

中图分类号：

O35 [流体力学]; O53 [等离子体物理学];

学科分类号：

070204 ; 080103 ; 080704 ;

摘要：

Stochastic effects may cause "fade-out" of an infectious disease in a population immediately after an epidemic outbreak. We evaluate the epidemic fade-out probability by a WKB method and find that the most probable path to extinction of the disease comes from an instantonlike orbit in the phase space of an underlying Hamiltonian flow.

引用

页数：4

共 11 条

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