The effect of temporal correlated noise on the sea level rate and acceleration uncertainty

被引:100
作者
Bos, M. S. [1 ]
Williams, S. D. P. [2 ]
Araujo, I. B. [1 ]
Bastos, L. [1 ,3 ]
机构
[1] Univ Porto, CIIMAR CIMAR, P-4050123 Oporto, Portugal
[2] Natl Oceanog Ctr, Liverpool L3 5DA, Merseyside, England
[3] Univ Porto, Fac Sci, DGAOT, P-4169007 Oporto, Portugal
关键词
Time-series analysis; Sea level change; Global change from geodesy; FAST ERROR ANALYSIS; RISE;
D O I
10.1093/gji/ggt481
中图分类号
P3 [地球物理学]; P59 [地球化学];
学科分类号
0708 ; 070902 ;
摘要
It is well known that sea level variations exhibit temporal correlation. This is sometimes ignored in the estimation process of the sea level rise or taken into account using a first-order autoregressive model. We have verified that this stochastic model is accurate for yearly tide gauge and sea level reconstruction time-series but it underestimates the real rate uncertainty in satellite altimetry and monthly tide gauge data by a factor of 1.3-1.5 and sometimes even 2. Similar results were found for sea level acceleration. An original finding is that in 13-17 per cent of the tide gauge data, we found random walk which increases the rate uncertainty on average by an additional factor of 3. The estimation errors presented in this research should be added to the other sources of uncertainty, such as the vertical land movement, spatial correlation and altimeter drift, to obtain the total sea level rate and acceleration error.
引用
收藏
页码:1423 / 1430
页数:8
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