Estimation of the probability of capture into a resonance mode of motion for a spacecraft during its descent in the atmosphere

The estimation of the probability of capture into a resonance mode of motion is considered for a spacecraft with a small asymmetry during its entry into the atmosphere. It is assumed that the initial conditions of spacecraft motion are distributed uniformly in some sufficiently small domain. The problem is solved for the equations of spacecraft motion linear with respect to the angle of attack. An analytical estimate of the probability of the spacecraft capture into the resonance corresponding to an ascending branch of the velocity head is obtained. The emphasis in the analysis of the estimate is made on the effect of the spacecraft asymmetry type on the probability of capture. A comparison of the estimate with the results of numerical computation is carried out. A model problem concerning the construction of the domain of the spacecraft center of mass locations, most dangerous from the point of view of the realization of the stable resonant modes of motion, is solved.