Forecasting tourism demand with ARMA-based methods

The forecast of tourism volume in the form of arrivals is of special importance for tourism and other hospitality industries because it is an indicator of future demand, thereby providing basic information for subsequent planning and policy making. In this paper, three univariate ARMA-based models are applied to tourism demand, as represented by the number of world-wide visitors to Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Australia and New Zealand. The study employs both monthly and quarterly time series generated from nine principal tourist destinations in Asian-Pacific region in the forecasting exercise to ensure the reliability of the forecasting evaluation. Forecasting performance based on disaggregated arrival series in a particular destination is examined as well. The general impression is that the ARMA-based models perform very well and in some cases the magnitude of mean absolute percentage error is lower than 2% level. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier Ltd.