Assessment of Climate Change and Human Activities on Vegetation Development in Northeast China

Vegetation in Northeast China (NEC) has faced dual challenges posed by climate change and human activities. However, the factors dominating vegetation development and their contribution remain unclear. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the response of vegetation in different land cover types, climate regions, and time scales to water availability from 1990 to 2018 based on the relationship between normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The effects of human activities and climate change on vegetation development were quantitatively evaluated using the residual analysis method. We found that the area percentage with positive correlation between NDVI and SPEI increased with time scales. NDVI of grass, sparse vegetation, rain-fed crop, and built-up land as well as sub-humid and semi-arid areas (drylands) correlated positively with SPEI, and the correlations increased with time scales. The negatively correlated area was concentrated in humid areas or areas covered by forests and shrubs. Vegetation water surplus in humid areas weakens with warming, and vegetation water constraints in drylands enhance. Moreover, potential evapotranspiration had an overall negative effect on vegetation, and precipitation was a controlling factor for vegetation development in semi-arid areas. A total of 53% of the total area in NEC showed a trend of improvement, which is mainly attributed to human activities (93%), especially through the implementation of ecological restoration projects in NEC. The relative role of human activities and climate change in vegetation degradation areas were 56% and 44%, respectively. Our findings highlight that the government should more explicitly consider the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the influence of human activities and water availability on vegetation under changing climate and improve the resilience of regional water resources. The relative proportions and roles map of climate change and human activities in vegetation change areas provide a basis for government to formulate local-based management policies.