THE EFFECT OF THE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMPONENTS OF AGGREGATE DEMAND ON THE NON-OIL GDP OF THE KINGDOM OF SAUDI ARABIA: A VECTOR AUTO-REGRESSION ANALYSIS

This study investigates the effect of the fluctuations in the components of aggregate demand on the non-oil GDP (RNOGDP) in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) using Vector Auto Regression analysis(VAR). The cointegration test indicates the existence of a long-term relationship between RNOGDP and the components of aggregate demand. The variance decomposition (VD) suggests that fluctuations in real government expenditure (RGOV) and real net exports (RNEXP) play a major role in explaining the fluctuations of real non-oil GDP, while the Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) indicate that the fluctuations in RGOV and real private consumption (RCONS) have a positive and the greatest influence on fluctuations in RNOGDP in the short run, but that vanishes in the long-term. On the other hand, the IRFs indicate that fluctuations in real investment (RI) and RNEXP have a negative effect on the fluctuations in RNOGDP in the short run, though they decline in the long run.