Between Russia as producer and Ukraine as a transit country: EU dilemma of interdependence and energy security

Between 2014 and 2015, the EU started a new energy policy in order to address, among other issues, the problematic character of energy interdependence with Russia, and thus improve its energy security. The aim of this article is to determine how this policy considered interdependence with Russia in the light of diversification alternatives. Energy security is seen through short-term and long-term dimensions, which can be equated to the concepts of vulnerability and sensitivity interdependence. As the article shows, the alternative of LNG is limited by production and consumption patterns in both Europe and other world markets. It also shows that maintaining interdependence with Russia and reducing the role of transit countries such as Ukraine would yield benefits both in vulnerability and sensitivity interdependence. However, while the EU has strongly based its rhetoric on the promise of LNG, it has ignored alternatives that would maintain interdependence with Russia. Eventually, the EU's energy strategy has acknowledged the limitations of LNG, even though it has not changed its stance towards Russia. In that respect, it seems fair to conclude the EU has not rigorously analysed the transit dimension in its interdependence with Russia and the implications for its energy security.