Risk of Surgery for Inflammatory Bowel Diseases Has Decreased Over Time: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Population-Based Studies

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) are chronic diseases that often require surgery. However, the risk of requirement of surgery over time has not been well characterized. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to establish the cumulative risk of surgery among patients with IBD and evaluated how this risk has changed over time. METHODS: We searched Medline, EMBASE, PubMed, and conference proceedings (2009-2012) on May 8, 2013, for terms related to IBD and intestinal surgery. Two reviewers screened 8338 unique citations to identify 486 for full-text review. The analysis included population-based studies published as articles (n = 26) and abstracts (n = 4) that reported risks of surgery at 1, 5, or 10 years after a diagnosis of Crohn's disease and/or ulcerative colitis. The trend in risk of surgery over time was analyzed by meta-regression using mixed-effect models. RESULTS: Based on all population-based studies, the risk of surgery 1, 5, and 10 years after diagnosis of Crohn's disease was 16.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 11.4%-23.2%), 33.3% (95% CI, 26.3%-42.1%), and 46.6% (95% CI, 37.7%-57.7%), respectively. The risk of surgery 1, 5, and 10 years after diagnosis of ulcerative colitis was 4.9% (95% CI, 3.8%-6.3%), 11.6% (95% CI, 9.3%-14.4%), and 15.6% (95% CI, 12.5%-19.6%), respectively. The risk of surgery 1, 5, and 10 years after diagnosis of Crohn's disease and 1 and 10 years after diagnosis of ulcerative colitis has decreased significantly over the past 6 decades (P < .05). CONCLUSIONS: Based on systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based studies, the risk of intestinal surgery among patients with IBD has decreased over the past 6 decades.