How Frequently Do the Results from Completed US Clinical Trials Enter the Public Domain? - A Statistical Analysis of the ClinicalTrials.gov Database

Background: Achieving transparency in clinical trials, through either publishing results in a journal or posting results to the ClinicalTrials.gov (CTG) web site, is an essential public health good. However, it remains unknown what proportion of completed studies achieve public disclosure of results (PDOR), or what factors explain these differences. Methods: We analyzed data from 400 randomly selected studies within the CTG database that had been listed as 'completed' and had at least four years in which to disclose results. Using Kaplan-Meier curves, we calculated times from completion to PDOR (defined as publishing the primary outcomes in a journal and/or posting results to CTG), and identified explanatory variables predicting these outcomes using Cox proportional hazards models. Findings: Among the 400 clinical trials, 118 (29.5%) failed to achieve PDOR within four years of completion. The median day from study completion to PDOR among 282 studies (70.5%) that achieved PDOR was 602 days (mean 647 days, SD 454 days). Studies were less likely to achieve PDOR if at earlier stages (phase 2 vs. phase 3/4, adjusted HR 0.60, 95% CI 0.47-0.78), if they only included adult subjects (adjusted HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.45-0.83), involved randomization (adjusted HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.46-0.83), or had smaller sample sizes (<= 50 subjects vs. >50, adjusted HR 0.60, 95% CI 0.44-0.83). Industry-funded studies were significantly less likely to be published than non-industry or blended studies (adjusted HR 0.49, 95% CI 0.36-0.66). Conclusions: A significant proportion of completed studies did not achieve PDOR within the four years of follow-up, particularly smaller studies at earlier stages of development with industry funding. This constitutes reporting bias and threatens the validity of the clinical research literature in the US.