A framework for the scenario planning of the mobile commerce industry using system dynamics

Mobile commerce refers to business activities performed over mobile terminals. A system dynamics (SD) approach is used to simulate how the mobile commerce industry will develop under different scenarios. The mobile commerce industry is regarded as a dynamic social economic system. Using a mobile commerce diffusion simulation model developed in previous work, a framework is introduced in illustrating the process of the scenario planning. The scenario design is primarily based on the known state of several national policies and the uncertain states of the strategic planning of the mobile commerce terminal (MCT) industry. An experimentation model is calibrated and simulated for the Chinese mobile commerce industry. A behavior analysis illustrates the way how a normal mobile commerce industry development will be constrained by the bottleneck from the strategic planning of the MCT industry.