The Logic and Contradictions of 'Peaceful Rise/Development' as China's Grand Strategy

Despite the widespread view that China does not have a coherent grand strategy, it does not need to invent one. China has already articulated a grand strategy that is based on the home-grown idea of 'peaceful rise/development' (PRD). The key issue is whether the logic of this grand strategy, and the contradictions within it, are fully understood, and whether China has sufficient depth and coherence in its policy-making processes to implement such a strategy. Although there are elements of longer continuity in China's strategic outlook, the transformation from Mao's revolutionist strategy to Deng's strategy of reform and opening up, involved a radical shift in China's perception of itself, the world, and its place in the world. That shift provides a stable and coherent background against which to think about the ends and means of China's grand strategy. The paper opens by looking at PRD's status as a grand strategy. It then surveys the ends and the means of China's foreign and security policy as they have evolved in practice and rhetoric. Finally, it assesses in depth China's practice against three distinct strategic logics within PRD: cold, warm and hot peaceful rise. The conclusion is that China's current practice points firmly towards cold peaceful rise, but that warm peaceful rise is perhaps still possible and offers many strategic advantages.