Joint evaluation of the directional accuracy of federal budget forecasts

被引：0
作者：
Tsuchiya, Yoichi [1 ]
机构：
[1] Tokyo Univ Sci, Sch Management, Kuki, Saitama 3468512, Japan
来源：
APPLIED ECONOMICS LETTERS | 2014年 / 21卷 / 08期
关键词：
government forecasts; directional analysis; market-timing test; nonparametric methods; forecast evaluation; MARKET-TIMING TEST; PREDICTIONS; PERFORMANCE; INFLATION; US;
D O I：
10.1080/13504851.2013.877562
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
Most research focused on deficit, revenue and outlay in budget forecasts has addressed these issues separately. In this study, we investigate changes in budget forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office, applying a recently developed market-timing test. We find that the combined forecasts of revenue and outlay are useful with a horizon of 8 months in predicting an increase/decrease, and useful with a horizon of up to 20 months in predicting an acceleration/deceleration in the deficit. © 2014 Taylor & Francis.
引用
收藏
页码：582 / 585
页数：4
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