Global Climate Change Influences Wine Production and Tourism in Northern New York

Later in this century, many national wine-producing regions will face significant economic challenges from the impact of global climate change. Others, however, will see new opportunities to develop or expand wine production and related tourism industries. This paper examines existing literature on the economic impacts of global climate change on wine production and wine tourism and uses a qualitative meta-analysis of current climate modeling along with studies of wine tourism as well as qualitative analysis on regional brand equity for wine. It applies these models to forecast a possible future for New York State, USA as an emerging area for wine tourism. There have been increasing levels of research over the past 20 years into the impact of climate change on tourism and wine production, including both water-based and snow-based outdoor tourism, spurred by increasingly sophisticated climate models and growing awareness of the realities of climate change. In particular, Hannah, et al (2013) predicts that many areas in traditional wine growing regions of Western Europe will experience considerable reduction in production by 2050. At the same time, regions of North America, New Zealand, and South Africa will experience an increase in total acreage suitable for wine production. If famous wine-producing regions see a decline in production and/or a significant shift in the type of grapes/wine produced, their historic brand equity with wine lovers and tourists may be affected, while new and emerging wine regions will see an opportunity to develop their own brands in wine tourism. Some producers in Bordeaux are forecasting the loss of the Merlot grape and calling for an enhanced emphasis on wine tourism to offset the economic impact (Southam, 2016). The development of wine tourism, as opposed to wine production, requires significant strategic positioning and an understanding of wine tourist demand (Mauracher, Pocidano, & Sacchi, 2016). These conclusions are used to support a set of specific recommendations for both government and private investment, to improve the economic value of wine tourism in New York State.