Simulation and Analysis of the Water Balance of the Nam Co Lake Using SWAT Model

Rapid change of alpine lakes in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is a clear manifestation of regional-scale climate variability that can be investigated by quantifying the regional hydrological cycle. The degree-day model (DDM) coupled with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model were used to quantify the water budget of the Nam Co Lake over the period of 2007 to 2013. Driven by local observed meteorological data, the coupled model was successfully validated with the observed lake levels (with R-2 = 0.65, NSE = 0.61, and PBIAS = -2.26). Analysis of the water balance revealed that rapid enlargement of the Nam Co Lake was primarily associated with precipitation increase while glacier melt played its role as the potential secondary driver in lake expansion. However, temporal analysis of lake expansion displayed that supremacy of precipitation and glacier melt interchanged between the years. It was found that average annual relative contributions of the precipitation, including direct precipitation on the lake, and glacier melt to the lake were 57% (or 667 mm), and 43% (or 502 mm), respectively. Besides, it was observed that annual values of actual evapotranspiration (ET) from the lake, glaciated, and non-glaciated subbasins were 615 mm, 280 mm, and 234 mm respectively. The average annual glacier mass balance (GMB) of the Nam Co basin was -150.9 millimeter water equivalent (mm w.e.). The relatively high amount of glacier melt was a consequence of the substantial increase in annual temperature in the lake basin. This work is of importance for understanding the rapid water cycle in the TP under global warming. Moreover, this work will also be helpful in monitoring and sustaining the local ecosystem and infrastructure, which is under risk due to rapid lake expansion as a result of climate change in the TP.