The Social Transmission of Overconfidence

被引:26
作者
Cheng, Joey T. [1 ]
Anderson, Cameron [2 ]
Tenney, Elizabeth R. [3 ]
Brion, Sebastien [4 ]
Moore, Don A. [2 ]
Logg, Jennifer M. [5 ]
机构
[1] York Univ, Dept Psychol, 4700 Keele St, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada
[2] Univ Calif Berkeley, Haas Sch Business, Berkeley, CA USA
[3] Univ Utah, David Eccles Sch Business, Salt Lake City, UT 84112 USA
[4] Univ Navarra, IESE Business Sch, Pamplona, Spain
[5] Georgetown Univ, McDonough Sch Business, Washington, DC 20057 USA
关键词
overconfidence; cognitive bias; positive illusions; social transmission; cultural learning; SELF-ENHANCEMENT; DOMINANCE COMPLEMENTARITY; DIFFERENCE SCORE; CONFORMIST TRANSMISSION; INDIVIDUAL-DIFFERENCES; CULTURAL-EVOLUTION; PREVERBAL INFANTS; DIAGNOSTIC ERROR; BIAS; CONFIDENCE;
D O I
10.1037/xge0000787
中图分类号
B84 [心理学];
学科分类号
04 ; 0402 ;
摘要
We propose and test the overconfidence transmission hypothesis, which predicts that individuals calibrate their self-assessments in response to the confidence others display in their social group. Six studies that deploy a mix of correlational and experimental methods support this hypothesis. Evidence indicates that individuals randomly assigned to collaborate in laboratory dyads converged on levels of overconfidence about their own performance rankings. In a controlled experimental context, observing overconfident peers causally increased an individual's degree of bias. The transmission effect persisted over time and across task domains, elevating overconfidence even days after initial exposure. In addition, overconfidence spread across indirect social ties (person to person to person), and transmission operated outside of reported awareness. However, individuals showed a selective in-group bias; overconfidence was acquired only when displayed by a member of one's in-group (and not out-group), consistent with theoretical notions of selective learning bias. Combined, these results advance understanding of the social factors that underlie interindividual differences in overconfidence and suggest that social transmission processes may be in part responsible for why local confidence norms emerge in groups, teams, and organizations.
引用
收藏
页码:157 / 186
页数:30
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