Predictions of the epidemiologic impact of introducing a pre-erythrocytic vaccine into the expanded program on immunization in sub-Saharan Africa

被引:46
作者
Maire, Nicolas [1 ]
Tediosi, Fabrizio [1 ]
Ross, Amanda [1 ]
Smith, Thomas [1 ]
机构
[1] Swiss Trop Inst, CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland
关键词
D O I
10.4269/ajtmh.2006.75.111
中图分类号
R1 [预防医学、卫生学];
学科分类号
1004 ; 120402 ;
摘要
We predict the effects of introduction of a pre-erythrocytic vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum into a malaria-endemic population in Africa. We use a stochastic simulation model that includes components of transmission, parasitology, and clinical epidemiology of malaria and was validated using the results of field trials of the RTS,S/AS02A vaccine. The results suggest that vaccines with efficacy similar to that of RTS,S/AS02A have a substantial impact on malaria morbidity and mortality during the first decade after their introduction, but have negligible effects on malaria transmission at levels of endemicity typical for sub-Saharan Africa. The main benefits result from prevention of morbidity and mortality in the first years of life. Vaccines with very short half-life or low efficacy may have little overall effect on incidence of severe malaria. A similar approach can be used to make predictions for other strategies for deployment of the vaccine and to other types of malaria vaccines and interventions.
引用
收藏
页码:111 / 118
页数:8
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