Careers of PhD graduates: The role of chance events and how to manage them

Global demand for higher education continues to grow, with increasing numbers of doctoral degrees awarded annually. The global academic labor market is growing too, albeit at a slower pace, and this impacts future career prospects of doctoral gradu; however, evaluation of their career outcomes is lacking. We examined the career pathways of PhDs in Estonia from three different cohorts: 2000, 2005 and 2010. The inductive qualitative longitudinal analysis we applied allowed us to reveal factors influencing the career progress of these cohorts, indicating the major impact of chance events on careers. An inductive data analysis - tracking the individual careers of 389 doctorates and conducting 69 in-depth qualitative interviews - revealed that 1) chance events in academia concerned 30% of the sample, 2) national-, institutional- and individual-level chance events exist, and 3) individuals can benefit from chance events by recognizing the case, anticipating possible outcomes, and acting according to the expected career prospects.