How do voters form positive economic beliefs?: Evidence from the Survey of Americans and Economists on the Economy

Beliefs about normative economics appear to be primarily determined by sociotropic rather than egocentric variables. (Sears & Funk, 1990; Citrin & Green, 1990) Using the Survey of Americans and Economists on the Economy, the current paper finds that the same holds for positive economic beliefs in most - but not all - cases. This hinges on whether a question is "causal" or "non-causal": Causal beliefs depend on sociotropic variables, especially education and ideology; non-causal beliefs, in contrast, depend on egocentric variables, with income growth playing the leading role. This is consistent with a cognitive model where actors answer easier questions using personal experience, and harder ones with "off-the-shelf" theories.