Ship speed prediction based on full scale sensor measurements of shaft thrust and environmental conditions

The primary goal of this study is to adapt and validate various regression models to predict a ship's speed through water based on relevant and available full scale sensor measurements from a ship, including measurements of external environmental forces. The wind is measured by on-board wind sensors, and the effect of the waves is measured by motion reference units (MRUs) installed on the ship, measuring motions in six degrees of freedom; three translational motions and rotations about these. Accurate speed estimates, which relate directly to the estimates of the propulsion efficiency, fuel efficiency and pollution, are vital to be able to optimize ship design and operation. We demonstrate how regression models such as linear regression, projection pursuit (PPT) and generalized additive models (GAM) can be easily implemented for this application. A simple regression model based on the well-established relationship between ship speed and shaft thrust represent a benchmark model towards which the other models are compared.