Light-duty electric vehicles in the gulf? Techno-economic assessment and policy implications

We investigate the economic and technological potential for adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs) in Abu Dhabi through a parametric assessment, a public attitude survey, and a diffusion model. Abu Dhabi, similar to fossil-fuel-rich countries in its region, features a car-dependent society and energy subsidies while being situated in hot, desert environment challenging to EVs. We compare conventional vehicles and EVs in the region accounting for the higher use of air-conditioning (AC) in the actual climatic and driving pattern conditions of Abu Dhabi developing an EV AC consumption penalty model. Average annual AC penalty in fuel consumption over normal testing conditions is 16% for conventional vehicles and 25% for EVs based on hourly weather and vehicle utilization patterns. For 250 days per year, the expected EV range is higher than 75% of the nominal value. During the five hottest days of the recorded year, it can drop to 60% but still covering the average daily driving of the majority of users with a single charge with a 25kWh battery. With partial subsidies offered for both fuel and electricity, EV adoption impacts the state in terms of opportunity costs for these fuels in addition to environmental externalities. We calculate the state and user benefits in a parametric analysis dependent on driving distance and battery costs. If the battery cost is $325/kWh, direct and internalized benefits and costs are balanced when the EV is driven 60 km/day. A diffusion scenario of 5% by 2030 results in cumulative net savings of 6.4 million barrels of oil, a reduction of 517.000 tonnes of CO2, and a cumulative net benefit of $127 million.