A new formulation for the stochastic control of systems with bounded state variables: An application to a single reservoir system

被引:16
作者
Fletcher, SG
Ponnambalam, K
机构
[1] Department of Systems Design Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo
来源
STOCHASTIC HYDROLOGY AND HYDRAULICS | 1996年 / 10卷 / 03期
关键词
reservoir stochastic theory; reliability; mean; variance; indicator function; storage bounds; nonlinear programming; simulation;
D O I
10.1007/BF01581462
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
A new formulation is presented for the analysis of reservoir systems synthesizing concepts from the traditional stochastic theory of reservoir storage, moments analysis and reliability programming. The analysis is based on the development of the first and second moments for the stochastic storage state variable. These expressions include terms for the failure probabilities (probabilities of spill or deficit) and consider the storage bounds explicitly. Using this analysis, expected values of the storage state, variances of storage, optimal release policies and failure probabilities useful information in the context of reservoir operations and design, can be obtained from a nonlinear programming solution. The solutions developed from studies of single reservoir operations on both an annual and monthly basis, compare favorably with those obtained from simulation. The presentation herein is directed to both traditional reservoir storage theorists who are interested in the design of a reservoir and modern reservoir analysts who are interested in the long term operation of reservoirs.
引用
收藏
页码:167 / 186
页数:20
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