Validation of administrative data used for the diagnosis of upper gastrointestinal events following nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug prescription

Background To validate veterans affairs (VA) administrative data for the diagnosis of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID)-related upper gastrointestinal events (UGIE) and to develop a diagnostic algorithm. Methods A retrospective study of veterans prescribed an NSAID as identified from the national pharmacy database merged with in-patient and out-patient data, followed by primary chart abstraction. Contingency tables were constructed to allow comparison with a random sample of patients prescribed an NSAID, but without UGIE. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to derive a predictive algorithm. Once derived, the algorithm was validated in a separate cohort of veterans. Results Of 906 patients, 606 had a diagnostic code for UGIE; 300 were a random subsample of 11 744 patients (control). Only 161 had a confirmed UGIE. The positive predictive value (PPV) of diagnostic codes was poor, but improved from 27% to 51% with the addition of endoscopic procedural codes. The strongest predictors of UGIE were an in-patient ICD-9 code for gastric ulcer, duodenal ulcer and haemorrhage combined with upper endoscopy. This algorithm had a PPV of 73% when limited to patients >= 65 years (c-statistic 0.79). Validation of the algorithm revealed a PPV of 80% among patients with an overlapping NSAID prescription. Conclusions NSAID-related UGIE can be assessed using VA administrative data. The optimal algorithm includes an in-patient ICD-9 code for gastric or duodenal ulcer and gastrointestinal bleeding combined with a procedural code for upper endoscopy.