Supply reductions, export restrictions, and expectations for hog returns in a potential classical swine fever outbreak in the United States

An economic model of-pork, swine, and related markers examines effects of hypothetical classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks in the United States. Equations determine deviations in endogenous variables front observed supply and demand values. The analysis assumes 11 million US hogs arc destroyed. Live swine and pork exports arc stopped during, the outbreak, with full recovery. Pork demand by US consumers is assumed to fall by 1% during the outbreaks, with a gradual recovery. Hog oil the basis of current market conditions. One potential CSF outbreak reflects losses in the hog population skewed towards grower and finisher swine, while another outbreak has stronger effects oil breeding inventory and the pig crop. The largest effects occur ill pork and swine. Effects on other sectors are small. Over 20 quarters, the pork industry returns lose $4 billion. Losses for hogs, including the value of animals destroyed, range from $2.6 billion to $4.1 billion. An assumption of unchanged compared to that when expectations adjust Unchanged expectations alter the pattern of slaughter and prices because breeding inventory falls less, thus more hogs are available For sale after Quarter 7.