Disastrous flood of 2013 in the Amur basin: Genesis, recurrence assessment, simulation results

The major formation factors of a disastrous flood in the Amur basin in July-September 2013 are discussed. The role of the Zeya and Bureya reservoirs in reducing the flood hazard is discussed. Preliminary estimates of the recurrence of peak flood discharge are given. It is shown that, considering the deficiency of data on water discharges along the river and the short duration of the available observation series, the estimates of flood hazard on the Amur R. obtained by statistical treatment of those data shows considerable uncertainty. A physical-mathematical model was developed to describe runoff formation in the Middle-Amur basin based on the ECOMAG information-simulation complex and a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model describing the motion of flood wave over a 600-km segment of the Amur R. was developed based on MIKE 11. The potentialities of the joint use of the proposed models to reproduce the behavior of water discharges and levels in different parts of the Amur R. during the propagation of the flood in 2013 and to evaluate the effect of withdrawals from the Zeya Reservoir to the water level regime of the Amur downstream of the Zeya R. mouth.