Evolution-based CO2 emission baseline scenarios of Chinese cities in 2025

被引：14

作者：

Cui, Can ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Wang, Zhen ^{[1
]}

Cai, Bofeng ^{[4
]}

Peng, Sha ^{[5
]}

Wang, Yang ^{[6
]}

Xu, Chengdong ^{[6
]}

机构：

[1] Huazhong Agr Univ, Coll Resources & Environm, Wuhan 430070, Peoples R China

[2] Wuhan Univ, Sch Resource & Environm Sci, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China

[3] Tsinghua Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China

[4] Chinese Acad Environm Planning, Ctr Climate Change & Environm Policy, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China

[5] Hubei Univ Econ, Sch Low Carbon Econ, Wuhan 430205, Peoples R China

[6] Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China

来源：

APPLIED ENERGY | 2021年 / 281卷

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

Emission scenario; City evolution; CO2; emissions; Chinese cities; Low-carbon development; CARBON EMISSIONS; TIME-SERIES; GROWTH; CITY; MODEL;

D O I：

10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.116116

中图分类号：

TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];

学科分类号：

0807 ; 0820 ;

摘要：

City-level CO2 emission scenarios are important for cities' policies of emission reduction. However, current studies do not reveal the macro patterns of the evolution of cities. This work uses the evolution-based city emission scenario (ECES) model, which tracks the city evolution patterns by probability methods based on multiple cities' emissions of different periods, to reveal the underlying evolution rules of cities' CO2 emissions. By the K-means clustering method, five clusters of cities are divided, and the evolution patterns of the city clusters are analyzed. Based on the maximum evolution probability, we discover the city evolution chains that reflect the common pattern of city development. We also propose two indicators for the estimation of emission intensity in 2025 in the natural evolution scenario. Policy implications are then discussed, including optimizing the low-carbon development pathway of cities, cooperate with similar cities.

引用

页数：8

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