Long-term simulation of temporal change of soil organic carbon in Denmark: comparison of three model performances under climate change

The temporal change in soil organic carbon (SOC) was analysed over an 80-year period based on climate change predictions of four regional circulation models under the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario in the 21st century. A 20-year (1991-2010) set of observed climate data was used to form the baseline, and generate synthetic data for future scenario analyses. With increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) levels, and under continuous winter wheat production with conventional tillage at different nitrogen (N) input rates, three crop-soil models were used to study the temporal changes of SOC. Results indicated that soil carbon (C) generally decreased over the simulation period. In addition, increased N losses through leaching and denitrification were estimated. Decline in soil C under continuous mono-cropping systems indicated increased focus on N fertilization strategies. The results also suggested significant interactive effect of N input rate and climate variables on soil C and denitrification in response to climate change. The uncertainty was addressed by including the crop-soil models in a mixed-effect analysis so that the contribution of the models to the total variance of random variation was quantified. Statistical analysis showed that the crop-soil models are the main source for uncertainty in analysing soil C and N responses to climate change.