Prediction of a Rift Valley fever outbreak

被引：238

作者：

Anyamba, Assaf ^{[1
]}

Chretien, Jean-Paul ^{[2
]}

Small, Jennifer ^{[1
]}

Tucker, Compton J. ^{[1
]}

Formenty, Pierre B. ^{[3
]}

Richardson, Jason H. ^{[4
]}

Britch, Seth C. ^{[5
]}

Schnabelf, David C. ^{[6
]}

Erickson, Ralph L. ^{[2
]}

Linthicum, Kenneth J. ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Biospher Sci Branch, Greenbelt, MD 20771 USA

[2] Walter Reed Army Inst Res, Div Prevent Med, Dept Def Global Emerging Infect Surveillance & Re, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA

[3] WHO, Communicable Dis Cluster Dept Epidem & Pandem Ale, CH-1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland

[4] USA, Med Res Unit Kenya, Dept Entomol & Vector Borne Dis, APO, AE 09831 USA

[5] ARS, USDA, Ctr Med Agr & Vet Entomol, Gainesville, FL 32608 USA

[6] USA, Med Res Unit Kenya, APO, AE 09831 USA

来源：

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | 2009年 / 106卷 / 03期

基金：

美国农业部;

关键词：

El Nino; Horn of Africa; vegetation index; risk mapping; zoonotic disease; EL-NINO; ECOLOGICAL CONDITIONS; DOMESTIC-ANIMALS; VIRUS; KENYA; EPIDEMICS; DIPTERA; AFRICA; DAMBO; EAST;

D O I：

10.1073/pnas.0806490106

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

El Nino/Southern Oscillation related climate anomalies were analyzed by using a combination of satellite measurements of elevated sea-surface temperatures and subsequent elevated rainfall and satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index data. A Rift Valley fever (RVF) risk mapping model using these climate data predicted areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa from December 2006 to May 2007. The predictions were subsequently confirmed by entomological and epidemiological field investigations of virus activity in the areas identified as at risk. Accurate spatial and temporal predictions of disease activity, as it occurred first in southern Somalia and then through much of Kenya before affecting northern Tanzania, provided a 2 to 6 week period of warning for the Horn of Africa that facilitated disease outbreak response and mitigation activities. To our knowledge, this is the first prospective prediction of a RVF outbreak.

引用

页码：955 / 959

页数：5

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