Time-series modeling of fishery landings using ARIMA models and Fuzzy Expected Intervals software

Forecasting, using historic time-series data, has become an important tool for fisheries management. ARIMA modeling, Modeling for Optimal Forecasting techniques and Decision Support Systems based on fuzzy mathematics may be used to predict the general trend of a given fish landings time-series with increased reliability and accuracy. The present paper applies these three modeling methods to forecast anchovy fish catches landed in a given port (Thessaloniki, Greece) during 1979-2000 and hake and bonito total fish catches during 1982-2000. The paper attempts to assess the model's accuracy by comparing model results to the actual monthly fish catches of the year 2000. According to the measures of forecasting accuracy established, the best forecasting performance for anchovy was shown by the DSS model (MAPE = 28.06%, RMSE = 76.56, U-statistic = 0.67 and R-2 = 0.69). The optimal forecasting technique of genetic modeling improved significantly the forecasting values obtained by the selected ARIMA model. Similarly, the DSS model showed a noteworthy forecasting efficiency for the prediction of hake landings, during the year 2000 (MAPE = 2.88%, RMSE = 13.75, U-statistic = 0.19 and R-2 = 0.98), as compared to the other two modeling techniques. Optimal forecasting produced by combined modeling scored better than application of the simple ARIMA model. Overall, DSS results showed that the Fuzzy Expected Intervals methodology could be used as a very reliable tool for short-term predictions of fishery landings. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.