Financial time series forecasting using independent component analysis and support vector regression

As financial time series are inherently noisy and non-stationary, it is regarded as one of the most challenging applications of time series forecasting. Due to the advantages of generalization capability in obtaining a unique solution, support vector regression (SVR) has also been successfully applied in financial time series forecasting. In the modeling of financial time series using SVR, one of the key problems is the inherent high noise. Thus, detecting and removing the noise are important but difficult tasks when building an SVR forecasting model. To alleviate the influence of noise, a two-stage modeling approach using independent component analysis (ICA) and support vector regression is proposed in financial time series forecasting. ICA is a novel statistical signal processing technique that was originally proposed to find the latent source signals from observed mixture signals without having any prior knowledge of the mixing mechanism. The proposed approach first uses ICA to the forecasting variables for generating the independent components (ICs). After identifying and removing the ICs containing the noise, the rest of the ICs are then used to reconstruct the forecasting variables which contain less noise and served as the input variables of the SVR forecasting model. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach, the Nikkei 225 opening index and TAIEX closing index are used as illustrative examples. Experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the SVR model with non-filtered forecasting variables and a random walk model. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.