Quantifiable Interactivity of Malicious URLs and the Social Media Ecosystem

Online social network (OSN) users are increasingly interacting with each other via articles, comments, and responses. When access control mechanisms are weak or absent, OSNs are perceived by attackers as rich environments for influencing public opinions via fake news posts or influencing commercial transactions via practices such as phishing. This has led to a body of research looking at potential ways to predict OSN user behavior using social science concepts such as conformity and the bandwagon effect. In this paper, we address the question of how social recommendation systems affect the occurrence of malicious URLs on Facebook, based on the assumption that there are no differences among recommendation systems in terms of delivering either legitimate or harmful information to users. Next, we use temporal features to build a prediction framework with >75% accuracy to predict increases in certain user group behaviors. Our effort involves the demarcation of URL classes, from malicious URLs viewed as causing significant damage to annoying spam messages and advertisements. We offer this analysis to better understand OSN user sensors reactions to various categories of malicious URLs in order to mitigate their effects.