Uncertainty Analysis for Maximum Power at SRC Using Hierarchical Monte Carlo Simulation

We present an uncertainty analysis (UA) for the maximum power of photovoltaic devices at standard reporting conditions, denoted P-max0. The UA employs a hierarchical Monte Carlo (MC) simulation to sample from the state-of-knowledge probability distribution for P-max0, based upon an irradiance and spectrally corrected current-voltage curve measured (nominally) at 1-sun according to ASTM E948-09 or E1036-12. A conditional factoring of the joint distribution of the parameters that determine P-max0 allows rigorous consideration of both systematic (e.g., calibration chain) and random (e.g., solar simulator noise) sources of uncertainty in P-max0. The corresponding hierarchical MC simulation is computationally efficient and parallelizable, allowing enough samples to control MC sampling error. The UA method complies with the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement.